Editorial Summary :

Approximately 2.8 million parking tickets are issued annually across the City of Toronto . The dataset I used contains non-identifiable information relating to each parking ticket issued for each calendar year . The critical information we will use is the infraction’s time, location and type(description) In the second half of the post, I will present a simple model to evaluate the chance of getting a parking ticket for a specific time and location . It’s doubtful getting a ‘PARK ON PRIVATE PROPERTY’ early morning (5 am to 7 am) or afternoon(3 pm to 6 pm) Holidays and extreme weather days significantly decrease ‘PARK — LONGER THAN 3 HOURS’ and ‘Park MACHINE-REQD FEE NOT PAID’ tickets . The number of tickets is not a good measure for a probability distribution . We assume you violate parking regulations at a specific location where you may get a parking ticket . The chance depends on the parking enforcement officer . If an inspector checks the place simultaneously, you will get a ticket 100%; if not, there is a 0% chance of getting a ticket . The more parking visitors, the more likely those “parking regulation breakers” will come . North York General Hospital has around 790 patients daily . The number of parking visitors is closed to 650 for weekdays and closed to 300 for weekends . As expected, the rates at night time are indeed higher . The infraction rate derived from this assumption can be treated as the optimal rate . Even the result overestimates the actual likelihood; we can still find some interesting observations . For example, people may be willing to steal a slight risk of parking illegally at night . Monday daytime and weekday from 9 am to 10 am have a relatively lower chance of getting a parking ticket if you park illegally . Officers are generally more likely on-site in the mornings than in the afternoons . Please note the results highly depend on the accuracy of the parking visitor distribution and how to evaluate the infraction rate, which will finally determine the P(infraction). The time slots with lower probability may suggest a real less chance of inspection, or we overestimate the possibility of someone’s violation .

Key Highlights :

  • Approximately 2.8 million parking tickets are issued annually across the City of Toronto .
  • Data set contains non-identifiable information relating to each parking ticket issued for each calendar year .
  • Holidays and extreme weather days significantly decrease ‘PARK — LONGER THAN 3 HOURS’ and ‘Park MACHINE-REQD FEE NOT PAID’ tickets .
  • North York General Hospital has around 790 patients daily parking visitors .
  • The more parking visitors, the more likely those “parking regulation breakers” will come .
  • The rate means in every 1000 parking visitors will violate the parking regulation .
  • Monday daytime and weekday from 9 am to 10 am have a relatively lower chance of getting a parking ticket if you park illegally .
  • Officers are generally more likely on-site in the mornings than in the afternoons .

The editorial is based on the content sourced from medium.com

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